By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Published: June 15, 2005
Ever since Iraq’s remarkable election, the country has been descending deeper and deeper into violence. But no one in Washington wants to talk about it. Conservatives don’t want to talk about it because, with a few exceptions, they think their job is just to applaud whatever the Bush team does. Liberals don’t want to talk about Iraq because, with a few exceptions, they thought the war was wrong and deep down don’t want the Bush team to succeed. As a result, Iraq is drifting sideways and the whole burden is being carried by our military. The rest of the country has gone shopping, which seems to suit Karl Rove just fine.
Well, we need to talk about Iraq. This is no time to give up – this is still winnable – but it is time to ask: What is our strategy? This question is urgent because Iraq is inching toward a dangerous tipping point – the point where the key communities begin to invest more energy in preparing their own militias for a scramble for power – when everything falls apart, rather than investing their energies in making the hard compromises within and between their communities to build a unified, democratizing Iraq.
Our core problem in Iraq remains Donald Rumsfeld’s disastrous decision – endorsed by President Bush – to invade Iraq on the cheap. From the day the looting started, it has been obvious that we did not have enough troops there. We have never fully controlled the terrain. Almost every problem we face in Iraq today – the rise of ethnic militias, the weakness of the economy, the shortages of gas and electricity, the kidnappings, the flight of middle-class professionals – flows from not having gone into Iraq with the Powell Doctrine of overwhelming force.
Yes, yes, I know we are training Iraqi soldiers by the battalions, but I don’t think this is the key. Who is training the insurgent-fascists? Nobody. And yet they are doing daily damage to U.S. and Iraqi forces. Training is overrated, in my book. Where you have motivated officers and soldiers, you have an army punching above its weight. Where you don’t have motivated officers and soldiers, you have an army punching a clock.
Where do you get motivated officers and soldiers? That can come only from an Iraqi leader and government that are seen as representing all the country’s main factions. So far the Iraqi political class has been a disappointment. The Kurds have been great. But the Sunni leaders have been shortsighted at best and malicious at worst, fantasizing that they are going to make a comeback to power through terror. As for the Shiites, their spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has been a positive force on the religious side, but he has no political analog. No Shiite Hamid Karzai has emerged.
“We have no galvanizing figure right now,” observed Kanan Makiya, the Iraqi historian who heads the Iraq Memory Foundation. “Sistani’s counterpart on the democratic front has not emerged. Certainly, the Americans made many mistakes, but at this stage less and less can be blamed on them. The burden is on Iraqis. And we still have not risen to the magnitude of the opportunity before us.”
I still don’t know if a self-sustaining, united and democratizing Iraq is possible. I still believe it is a vital U.S. interest to find out. But the only way to find out is to create a secure environment. It is very hard for moderate, unifying, national leaders to emerge in a cauldron of violence.
Maybe it is too late, but before we give up on Iraq, why not actually try to do it right? Double the American boots on the ground and redouble the diplomatic effort to bring in those Sunnis who want to be part of the process and fight to the death those who don’t. As Stanford’s Larry Diamond, author of an important new book on the Iraq war, “Squandered Victory,” puts it, we need “a bold mobilizing strategy” right now. That means the new Iraqi government, the U.S. and the U.N. teaming up to widen the political arena in Iraq, energizing the constitution-writing process and developing a communications-diplomatic strategy that puts our bloodthirsty enemies on the defensive rather than us. The Bush team has been weak in all these areas. For weeks now, we haven’t even had ambassadors in Iraq, Afghanistan or Jordan.
We’ve already paid a huge price for the Rumsfeld Doctrine – “Just enough troops to lose.” Calling for more troops now, I know, is the last thing anyone wants to hear. But we are fooling ourselves to think that a decent, normal, forward-looking Iraqi politics or army is going to emerge from a totally insecure environment, where you can feel safe only with your own tribe.
I’ve gone on enough about it, but a glib remark about this extremely serious issue is the kind of thing that can get an article written…
I’d love to have an article written. I concur the issue is very serious. More people milling about is not going to make our success any more successful. I understand what your saying about what happens when your missing half your mechanics or a couple of key people but I would say to you that our enemies are not going to wait for us to get ready to fight. Terrorists don’t give timeouts and have no care for the geneva convention. I would love to have everything perfect, all seasoned veterans with brand new, top of the line equipment but it’s just not feasible. It never was for any army in history. The Japanese didn’t give us time to rebuild our ships or train new troops or anything like that.
War is hard and peace is even harder, criticizing Bush for problems that happen in nature is just a wasted effort. Things break and people make logistical mistakes, that’s the way it goes and it sucks. If Al Queda would just disband and Osama surrender and Islam take the raod of peace we wouldn’t have to be in Iraq.
– and like the troll who accuses you of banging your own mother because you disagree about whether or not the UN building in New York should be blown up –
KARL, I’m shocked, leave my family out of this!!!
[/humor]
Laziness and trying to cut corners is why a single recruiter tried to buck the system and if there are others then the same goes for them. Sales isn’t about price or deceptive practices, it takes talent and these guys just don’t have what it takes to sell.
Right, have you read the actual recruiters’ accounts of their lives these past few years? These are hard working guys, and once in that spot you’ve already reuped at least once – most are going to stay in for 20. When you’re dedicated to a career in the Army, and that is threatened because you can’t get your job done, yet it’s not because of booze, no legs or laziness…that’s about the most stressfull thing a person could come across in life.
Public perception is that the only time soldiers are stressed is when they’re being shot at.
I get what you’re saying, and that people vote for a candidate for different reasons.
A dollar bill and a human life have to exist on seperate levels when we look at these things. The percentage of tax taking from my paycheck is not relevant on the level of people dying. The government taking lives trumps them taking money. If you have to fix things, you save the lives, then work on giving people their money back.
That was some of that old-time deadissue satire Right…goes well with lemonade, enchiladas, Knob Creek and just about any other thing you could imagine…it’s just that good!
We can’t pick and choose which troops to support based on how they vote in elections or what party they support. It’s all or nothing.
Right on.
Be careful of what you wish for, you might get it.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/politics/politics-security-iraq-cia.html?
You made the point that the terrorists won’t stop, won’t wait for us to get ready…that’s my point exactally, it’s not time to play politics with this thing and ignore the problem. Bush needs to work on increasing recruitment with some effective salesmanship of his own.
That was I – – – – – there’s a market for this type of commentary…pointing out how the internet can turn people into assholes.
Wow, I go away for a few hours and suddenly I am having a relationship with rights mother, now I know how rumors get started.
I think you are trying to argue that Iaq is a magnet for terrorist and that is a good thing because we know where they are. If that is true is now really a good time to declare victory and run, or draw down troops. I don’t think so.
If the goal is to have a good training ground for aspiring Jihadist then mission accomplished.
The whole concept of more terrorists being created escapes the logic of ‘fighting them there instead of here’ – – – If we’re creating new terrorists, like we did in Afghanistan during their fight against the Russians, we could be laying the groundwork for another 9/11 down the road.
The problem with fighting terrorism is that these guys really do not need a state to sponsor them, they just need a reletively weak corrupt government that looks the other way while they train. The problem with treating it as a milatary problem is that you have a lot of collateral damage when you go after them. In the end thie collateral damage produces anger and more terrorists.
Afganistan was probably a pretty good model for fighting these guys, give the government a chance to hand over the bad guy and when they refuse do just enough to catch the guys you want. The key would be to get the guy you want and not let them escape. Randomly torturing citizens of the occupied country probably does not help the situation either.
I see the primary problem as how they are funded. As I understand it from what I’ve read is it’s a cash operation, with money flowing in from ‘somewhere’ and the weapons available for purchase just about ‘everywhere’. Shut down all the bank accounts that you want, the duffel bags of cash will continue to purchase what the fighters require to keep it up.
After that the biggest problem I think is the cultural aspect in terms of the fact that teens in Saudi, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Egypt, etc. are choosing to become a terrorist instead of living legit. This is the thing that democracy can supposedly turn around, but the repressive structure of these nations’ leadership doesn’t allow for change, and we continue to work with these countries, give them money and refer to them as ‘friends’.
The larger problem of the money is what I hope we can eventually get our arms around. I have a feeling…no documentation or proof to support it…just a hunch, that Russia is behind more of this than we’ll ever know. That’s a monster right next door who could get away with quite a bit without anyone knowing. They’re becoming very good at flying below the radar. Gives me the heebejeebes.
Oil revenue is probably a big source of the cash that funds the terrorists, inadvertentely the US is funding both sides of the war.
A while back the nytimes had an artcle about suicide bombers and where they come from, it was surprising to me how many of them are educated and affluent. Combatting that kind of hate is pretty difficult.
Russia? that is an interesting idea. I doubt Russia minds that the US is bogged down in Iraq and that oil prices are going so high. But remember Bush looked into Putins eyes and saw a good man.(sarcasm there)
The whole concept of more terrorists being created escapes the logic of ‘fighting them there instead of here’
I don’t believe these terrorists are “created” rather they are just out there waiting for orders. These people have such a hatred for anything not muslim, it’s in their culture, it’s ingrained from birth.
So to say that we are creating a training ground is wrong, I think were trying to draw out the enemy to fight on our terms and it’s working. The insurgents we kill today won’t be bombing schools and churches tomorrow.
I think we learned from Vietnam that fighting a guerrilla war is dangerous but the one time we drew the Vietcong out into the open we slaughtered them. While I’d love to not have a war at all, this war isn’t our choice, it’s fight now or get overrun later.
By having a “bright light source” many terrorists are coming out of their secret cells and hidy holes to engage us. We know where they are, we know how to deal with them it’s just a matter of fending off the extreme left long enough to make the world a little safer, even if it is until the next generation of jihadists grows to murdering age. The moths are attracted to the light and are zapped.
Right:
Maybe some people are just born to be jihadist, if that is the case then we really need more people in the army and we need to accept that we will be in a constant state of war. Time for all those campus repubs to put away GQ and join.
I think the fact that you wanted to join shows that you agree with this. You believed that the cause was worth fight for and were willing to go, why should you expect less from your fellow conservatives.
Maybe some people are just born to be jihadist, if that is the case then we really need more people in the army and we need to accept that we will be in a constant state of war. Time for all those campus repubs to put away GQ and join.
I do think the world will be in a constant state of war, Islam preaches entitlement though force so there won’t be anywhere that is free of potential conflict.
Republicans can’t keep saving the world, where are all these liberal war heroes we hear so much about? So I have to pay into social security AND protect you from harm at my own detriment?
I think the fact that you wanted to join shows that you agree with this. You believed that the cause was worth fight for and were willing to go, why should you expect less from your fellow conservatives.
It’s not whether I expect less from fellow conservatives, who do you think is in ROTC? It’s the liberals who think everyone else should do their work for them. What I believe is irrelevant, our country has been under seige for decades so my agreement with the war has no bearing.
I get the feeling you feel that the Republicans some how are responsible for the conflicts in the middle east. I don’t understand why you think conservatives should be the only ones defending America and our allies, I think most military people are conservative but that’s beside the point.
Why should liberals get to enjoy all this freedom and safety on the backs of conservatives?
You make a good case for the draft.
I don’t think conservatives are guaranteeing freedom and safety, I think they are like the bad manager who creates a problem and then solves it in a half-assed manner.
Have a good night, maybe we can argue more tomorrow.
My phone line has been messed up all day, so I haven’t been able to go online at all until just now…and I’m exhausted, so this will be kind of short.
DI: The whole concept of more terrorists being created escapes the logic of ‘fighting them there instead of here’
RT: I don’t believe these terrorists are “created” rather they are just out there waiting for orders. These people have such a hatred for anything not muslim, it’s in their culture, it’s ingrained from birth.
So to say that we are creating a training ground is wrong, I think were trying to draw out the enemy to fight on our terms and it’s working. The insurgents we kill today won’t be bombing schools and churches tomorrow.
Right – both the military and the journalists say that the terrorists are coming from Saudi and entering Iraq through Damascus and past the border along Syria. They surely are being created by the day. I’ve read a lot of articles in the WSJournal and NYTimes about Egypt and Saudi Arabia, other countries in the region have the same dynamic that exists where their countries are poor and run by repressive leaders who allow the religious leaders to run wild – and at some point, the fight and heaven everlasting makes a lot of sense.
It’s definitely not a situation where there’s a finite amount of them already and when we kill one, we’re one closer to wiping them out.
On the training in Iraq – – – military people are saying this, and they’re the ones who are there. So I think that we should assume that what they’re saying is right.
From talkingpointsmemo.com
Campus republicans in action:
“Vivian Lee says “Frankly, I want to be a politician. I’d like to survive to see that.” Put her in the category of people who are ineligible for service because they want to survive into adulthood.”
No wonder the war is so popular as long as someone else fights it.
Someone would have to be nuts to sign up at this point.